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Nope. The probability theory doesn't work like that. When you argue that 2+2=4 you assume 2 and 2 are known and they are not.

A=you picked the car at first

B=the host opened the door

P(A|B) can be anywhere between 0 and 1.

In your calculations you assume that P(A|B)=P(A) which is correct ONLY if A and B are independent. Independence of A and B is not in the problem statement, you invented this clause yourself.



This is an excellent example of what I am saying. 2 + 2 = 4 was already written and you are insisting that it was not.

That said, the source material is this:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130121183432/http://marilynvos...

The problem is well defined in the source material and what others are interjecting here is another problem.


Where exactly does it state the independence of these two variables in the problem definition in the source material?




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