I don't think what the iphone supports will matter much in the long run, it's what devices like these nokias that will have the biggest impact on the future of mobile http://www.nokia.com/A4405104
———
No one is going to stop developing in Flash or Java just because it doesn't work on iPhone. Those who wanna cater to the iPhone market will make a "watered down version" of the app. Just the way an m site is developed for mobile browser.Thats it.
——
If another device maker come up with a cheaper phone with a more powerful browser, with support for Java and Flash, things will change. Always, the fittest will survive. Flash and java are necessary evils(if you think they are evil).
——
So it will take 1 (one) must-have application written in Flash or Java to make iPhone buyers look like fools? Sounds okay to me.
——
The computer based market will remain vastly larger than the phone based market. I don't have real numbers off hand, but lets assume 5% of web views are via cellphones
A self-proclaimed VC (but really just a business angel syndicate gateway keeper with no real money, as I later found out) once told me (in 2005) "Even if it will be possible to use the Internet from one's phone one day, it will be too expensive for ordinary people to use it."
This was already wrong when he said it to me (I was pitching a mobile
question answering system developed in 2004), as then an ugly HTML cousin
called WAP already existed. I have never taken any risk capital investor that did not have their own tech exist seriously since then.
Uh, as the page says, these were cheap feature phones for emerging markets. In 2007 Nokia had smartphones vastly more capable than the original iPhone. They just didn’t have a large touchscreen.
That seems like a strange interpretation of the comment you linked. He was responding to the question of how much market share the iPhone needs to make an impact; not predicting an upper bound on the market share.
I don't think what the iphone supports will matter much in the long run, it's what devices like these nokias that will have the biggest impact on the future of mobile http://www.nokia.com/A4405104
———
No one is going to stop developing in Flash or Java just because it doesn't work on iPhone. Those who wanna cater to the iPhone market will make a "watered down version" of the app. Just the way an m site is developed for mobile browser.Thats it.
——
If another device maker come up with a cheaper phone with a more powerful browser, with support for Java and Flash, things will change. Always, the fittest will survive. Flash and java are necessary evils(if you think they are evil).
——
So it will take 1 (one) must-have application written in Flash or Java to make iPhone buyers look like fools? Sounds okay to me.
——
The computer based market will remain vastly larger than the phone based market. I don't have real numbers off hand, but lets assume 5% of web views are via cellphones