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The Nvidia panic stems, in part, from the possibility that this is just the first of many potential significant optimization leaps.


Idgi, optimization leaps are virtually guaranteed.

I think this is a deeper question about the bounds of human desire... which seem virtually limitless. We seem to have an unlimited appetite for answering questions on the complexity of existence. Pair that with arms race issues, and you have an obvious need for massive compute regardless of how efficient the algorithms are.


That's fair but look at the assumptions currently built into NVDA's stock price. Hard to say for certain but to some it's priced as if it has a monopoly on all things AI for a decade. If you can spend $6K (and less in the future) on a full system that runs a model for you where does that leave the assumptions baked into that stock price? I'm too lazy to have come up with a model myself but off the cuff it seems like there might be some dislocation in a lot of assumptions. I dunno. I'm kind of a luddite because of the .com bubble and this has the same feel.


Jevons’ paradox seems relevant:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox




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