The #1 problem with the app store for a developer is that it's a total black box. I have no idea how my users find my apps, how they choose them over other apps, or even which aspects of my apps page are most or least effective in enticing them. Contrast this with the kind of insanely detailed analytics you can get on the web now and it's like flying blind.
I suspect most of my users have found my apps via posts I've made on dedicated music-making forums but I can't say for sure.
I haven't tried selling a web app yet but I did port my iPad synthesizer to the desktop and that seems to generate a lot more traffic without much effort on my part.
I see your point about the black box. But, I have this feeling that maybe the sheer numbers of people that enter the mobile app funnel at all far outweigh those on the web.
It seems like the difference between having a big shop on a quiet backstreet and having a tiny shack on a busy high street. You can watch every move of every visitor with a dozen CCTV cameras in your backstreet shop, but the footfall is all on the highstreet.
One tip for web apps: make sure to list it on the Chrome web store and keep pushing regular updates and replying to user reviews.
"But, I have this feeling that maybe the sheer numbers of people that enter the mobile app funnel at all far outweigh those on the web."
But you just heard from someone who said that even when their app shows up in the What's Hot list, they still don't get a lot of sales. Which also implies it doesn't take very many sales to get there.
Speculation about how truth may not be true is not very productive. It really doesn't matter how many people enter the funnel if few make it to the "give you money" step and you have no control over or visibility into the intermediate steps. It is for theory to explain reality, not the other way around.
I said nothing about conversion. My guess was about the top of the funnel. He said he hasn't tried selling his web app yet, so the comparison remains to be tested.
At least I qualified my speculations as a feeling. If you're going to misread, at least don't be so snipy.
Anyway, I say all of this as a web app developer myself. I prefer the high street to the mall.
In terms of absolute number of users the web is always going to dwarf any native app store.
Just being in the app store may have been worth something a few years ago but now with users searching through 600,000 apps with Apple's crappy search UI I don't think it counts for much any more. For example, for the Technology Review having a professionally designed app in the store was worth 353 subscriptions:
I suspect most of my users have found my apps via posts I've made on dedicated music-making forums but I can't say for sure.
I haven't tried selling a web app yet but I did port my iPad synthesizer to the desktop and that seems to generate a lot more traffic without much effort on my part.