Facebook will never grow revenue to 10x (matching Google) by continuing to sell display advertising on its own site.
However, it knows so much about users and keeps them logged in, so it definitely has potential to serve highly targeted or viral campaigns everywhere else on the web and mobile apps, a much better version of adsense.
Secondly, it is involving itself deeply in to user's habits and eventually may make a big play in to e-commerce, getting a cut out of every transaction made by the user (while frictionlessly sharing the information, of course). Credits is just in its infancy.
Finally, its learning so much about user's habits on the web that it can do a better job than Google at search, and make a killing on search ads.
$100b a bargain, I'm not so sure. I'd be more inclined to describe it as a fair valuation.
This is the real reason Google is getting desperate about Google+, they are worried about FB launching its own hyper targeted ad network. Google has context and tons of advertisers, FB has context and deep demographics and quite a lot of advertisers.
I think it's more that Google wants in on that demographically targeted ad-game. Right now search ads and facebook display ads are really different beasts.
For instance, in my business Facebook ads are worthless. We depend on user intent "I'm looking for THIS" (in our case local service professionals). In search that intent is very clear, in Facebook way less so.
If I was selling lifestyle merchandise or advertising a consumer site, Facebook would be really attractive I'd think.
Both sides want a big piece of what the other has.
Ads on other websites is definitely lucrative business, but if you want to make a parallel to Google, adsense only makes up 28% of total revenue [1]. This makes me kind of skeptical that a similar system for Facebook would double or triple their revenue. It's definitely possible that the parallel is wrong though.
i agree the outlooks on facebook are pretty good under your points. I should point out that Facebook, specifically zuckerburg has not shown interest in search, and has even said he does not want it in the past. It is also incredibly difficult to build an effective search engine. Incredibly difficult.
However, it knows so much about users and keeps them logged in, so it definitely has potential to serve highly targeted or viral campaigns everywhere else on the web and mobile apps, a much better version of adsense.
Secondly, it is involving itself deeply in to user's habits and eventually may make a big play in to e-commerce, getting a cut out of every transaction made by the user (while frictionlessly sharing the information, of course). Credits is just in its infancy.
Finally, its learning so much about user's habits on the web that it can do a better job than Google at search, and make a killing on search ads.
If all this happens, $100B is a bargain.