It's really all about how you teach programming. My first exposure to programming was in high school where a math teacher who had never coded a day in her life was thrown into the position for some extra cash. I witnessed the dichotomy first hand here--and I was clearly in the wrong bell-curve. But that summer, I attended a summer program where it was taught properly. First explaining the context and history of programming, and then exposing us to real world applications. This had a huge rate of success for everyone in that program.
I don't think that the goats will ever go away, but I do think that if taught properly, that the ratio of people who understand to those who don't can be on the order of someone who understands an art history class to someone who doesn't-- or any other area of specialization for that matter.
Similarly, my first exposure to programming was in a high school AP (advanced placement/college credit) class taught by a math teacher. The teacher would give us an assignment and then leave the room for the rest of the period. As a group we would come up with an answer in about 5 minutes and then spend the rest of the time playing games on the class computers. His teaching method wasn't exactly effective for me, and needless to say I didn't learn a whole lot. I ended up getting a 1 (on a scale of 1-5, 1 being terrible) on the exam. The way I ended up learning and becoming infatuated with programming was with my TI-82 calculator. By trial and error I would write programs for games, class notes (hi-tech cheat sheets) and animations. In college I began taking "real" programming classes, but found the teaching to be both dated and lacking real-world application. I kept learning through side projects though and now, 12 years later, I realize that in this vocation, there is never an end to learning and that people can learn in so many different ways.
I think the misconception some teachers have is that if a student is struggling, he or she is either incapable of learning the material or just not trying. The reality is that it could just be a reflection of how effective the teacher's methods are for that particular student.
I don't think that the goats will ever go away, but I do think that if taught properly, that the ratio of people who understand to those who don't can be on the order of someone who understands an art history class to someone who doesn't-- or any other area of specialization for that matter.