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We aren't in a recession. The broad job market is still way too tight.

But it is coming. It is being engineered by the Fed to reduce inflation. Probably sometime next year.



Recession is measured by GDP. Unless we're not using the technical definition. In which case a recession doesn't have a firm meaning.


Recessions in the US are declared by an NBER panel (retrospectively) based on vibes.

https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/no-us-rec...

We currently aren't seeing one; that would be stagflation. We're seeing inflation plus economic activity instead.




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