> Russia has similar severe demographics. Zeihan predicted in 2014 that they would invade the rest of Ukraine around the end of 2021, because if they waited much longer they wouldn't have the manpower. This is the first of many trade-disrupting conflicts he expects.
"if they waited much longer they wouldn't have the manpower" isn't really a reason to invade Ukraine. It's a reason to invade before waiting to long if you already have decided to invade for another reason. In 2014 lots of people were predicting Russia would come back at some point. Does he have a unique take on a more underlying reason for the conflict in the first place? That would be more telling in terms of predicting further global breakdown.
Sure, I skipped over that since the question was about China.
The reason he gave for Russia invading Ukraine is geographic. Over the course of its history Russia has been invaded fifty times, so they're touchy about that even if things look peaceful at the moment. Right now Russia has no real geographic boundaries, so it takes immense manpower to actually defend the borders, assuming you don't want to go nuclear. With the old Soviet borders, they had mountains and only nine passes to defend, which could be done relatively easily. Now they control one of those passes. Ukraine gives them two more plus a good base of operations to take the rest.
This fits his overall approach to geography: you want crunchy borders, good ports, and a productive interior with nice easy transportation inside. The US has all that in spades, a few other countries do to a lesser extent, most have various impediments, and all this drives a lot of everybody's history. His 2014 book applies this basic idea to many of the great civilizations in history, starting with ancient Egypt.
not if you are an authoritarian government which maintains power through violence. here Putin hits two birds with one stone: he gets rid of a problematic demographic and attempts to achieve political/geographic gains to ensure Gazprom lives on and pay dividends to his offsprings.
Xi faces similar problem. His growing number of unemployed, educated, unwed single male is another source of anxiety. The last thing he needs is a massive Tianmen Square event spreading and his button men unwilling to push the button. Not to mention internal competition from the opposition (Zhang Zemin faction).
All in all, we are headed for uncharted waters. For the first time we have more old people than young in many developed economies, and governments face a three prong dillema with only two that they can save: economy, housing and health care.
No country can have all three, you can have two but one needs to be sacrificed. ex. Japan sacrificed its economy but kept its housing and health care intact by ensuring homogenity to continue. Israel also does the same to a degree (since thats the point of its existence). UK sacrificed housing to continue its economy and health care. Canada did the same.
It boils down to do you want to open up immigration and allow them to keep your economy going strong? Different countries have different needs and wants.
Korea seems to be experimenting with immigration/multicultural society more actively than Japan which clearly has signaled it will not change. The countries that have chosen economy over homogenous population are definitely having their moment in Scandinavia and Germany.
"if they waited much longer they wouldn't have the manpower" isn't really a reason to invade Ukraine. It's a reason to invade before waiting to long if you already have decided to invade for another reason. In 2014 lots of people were predicting Russia would come back at some point. Does he have a unique take on a more underlying reason for the conflict in the first place? That would be more telling in terms of predicting further global breakdown.