There are two different issues here. Assuming it’s a random risk you would expect car dealerships to offer some from of insurance/extended battery warranty.
However, if the batteries need to be replaced every say 12 years spending 16,500$ onto replace a 75kWh battery is less than gas prices over that time span. Further the labor is only 2,300 to replace a battery so falling battery prices could easily make that a pricey but expected repair that’s worth doing once.
Of course that’s assuming a full replacement is needed, the other option is to add capacity to adjust for reduced range. A 75kWh battery that lost 40% capacity only needs an additional 30kWh of batteries to be back to full capacity. An initial design leaving a void and appropriate hookups largely solves the problem of battery degradation.
> "Further the labor is only 2,300 to replace a battery"
Why so much? Almost three working days at $100/hour?? Here[1] for example is a video of a Nio ES6 electric car in China with a battery swap station you can book on a smartphone, drive into, and it robotically swaps the discharged battery for a charged one in ~8 minutes, with possibly one person working there dealing with paperwork (of all things).
https://youtu.be/DPVrraVbEIM?t=82 shows me that removing a Tesla Model 3 battery needs the front and rear seats, center console, and all the carpet and interior bits removed, because there are bolts going down to the battery pack. That explains the price.
I didn’t mean that 2300 was low, rather that labor is often equally or more expensive than the part but in this case it’s (only) 14%. Which means if the battery price drops by half you will see a replacement costs drop to 9,400.
>>if the batteries need to be replaced every say 12 years spending 16,500$ onto replace a 75kWh battery is less than gas prices over that time span.
That is a far too simplistic way to look at the issue, and one that is at odds with how the majority of people budget their lives. So even if technically correct (and I have not done the math to confirm) it has little relvance to the resell value of the car.
Reality does not often matter, for example certain model of cars have become known for being "trash" simply because of a 1% failure rate of a part. Most people will never have the failure but the resell value of that model takes a HUGE impact because of the perception.
If electric vehicles are PERCEIVED by the public as being unreliable past 10 years old, the resell value of older battery electrics will approach zero. You need this resell market to support new sales. The exception to this is normally the "luxury" market which is somewhat insulated by resell value because the owners typically do not care. This is also why most of the battery electrics are in that market.
But if you want to replace the Camry, or the F150, Resell value is Critical as most people only keep their car for 5-6 years, and the typical car is sold 3-4 times in it life.
As it stands right now, the battery powered car needs at least 1 full replacement to get the same life of a typical ICE car. That replacement, is more expensive than an engine for an ICE, and it typically more than the car is worth, that makes these cars a ticking time bomb to most used car purchasers. Even if the cost of gas is more over the 12-15 life. That plays no part in the metric of used car value
You say that yet EV sales and used EV sales aren’t facing that issue. A low mileage 2012 Model S is still worth ~37k, and 2013 are selling around 39k. It’s easy enough to see why, a 250 mile range * 1,000 charge cycles ~= 250,000 miles.
As to the underlying perception, I expect people will see old EV’s as being a great long term investment because they have vastly fewer bits that need to be replaced. People will be talking about slapping a new battery into an EV with 250k miles, and spend less on gas and repairs as you aim for 500k miles. Especially after a few more battery price drops.
Primary reason for that is battery issue has not reached the wider market, Tesla's are still a novelty, and owning one is an aspirational desire for many people, it is not a utilitarian car like a Camry.
Also you talking about a Car, when new in 2012 Dollars was $93,000 (that is $114,000 in today;s dollars), that is an EXTREME deprecation rate.
For comparison lets look at the Most popular vehicle in 2012, the F150. The most expensive F150 that year was the Harley Davidson Edition @ $53,000, That same truck 10 years later sells for $28,000 or 53% of its original value
The Tesla Model S Performance at a Original Price of $93,000 selling for $37,000 or 40% of its original price. Another Key factor here as well that tips this even more to the F150, is that the majority of F150s on the market from 2012 have 150,000+ miles on them, where the majority of 2012 Model S on the market have 1/2 that or less.
The Tesla Resell value is value is already in the tank compared to ICE, and that is with its cult like status symbol. Other Battery vehicles that do not have this cult like status are FAR FAR worse, and Tesla's will at some point see a similar fate if they ever become the next Honda or Toyota
A 9 year old BMW model 7 which ran 74+k new with 78k miles is only 20k, that’s at best retaining 27% of it’s value after 9 years. A 10 year old 150k mile BMW model 7 is down at 15k that’s down to 20% of it’s purchased price.
Depreciation is simply higher on more expensive cars, look at a wider selection of cars and 40% after 10 years is quite good especially on a 100k car. That said anything unusual such as the F150 Harley Davidson you looked at tends to retain it’s value much better.
BMW is hardly the example I would use to defend your stance, BMW are also widely known for their expensive maintenance costs as they age, that is the reason why they are soo poorly valued.
That is the trend Tesla is going towards, and it is not a trend to defend your position that Battery cars can / should replace ICE
The market can not bear every car having a resell value like BMW's
This is the problem with your argumentation or rather we seem to be having 2 different conversation
The topic here, I thought, was the problem with Electrics replacing the common car, highlight luxury example is not the point and I am not sure how you believe that refute the idea that batteries will be a liability for resell value
So far you are just tossing out example of vehicle resell with out explaining how or why this refutes my position that selling used electric vehicle will be increasing hard, thus lowering their resell value, if the uncerntiy of battery replacement costs loom in the future buyers mind.
no one is going to buy a 10 year ICE car if they think the engine will need to be replaced in 2 years, like wise no one is going to buy a 10 year old electric car if they think the battery (@$15,000) will need to be replaced in 2 years.
This fact will hurt the electric car adoption, and could / will prevent it from being anything more than a luxury item for rich people, who instead of being able to sell it to a less well off person, will have to sell it for scrap making our waste problem even worse
Ok, sure let’s step away from actual data and work in theory.
> lowering resale value, if the uncertainty of battery replacement costs loom in the future buyers mind.
Saying batteries are a liability for resale value is no different than saying engines are a liability for resale value. High mileage cars have lower value than low mileage cars because they face more mechanical issues. The question is just how much.
> no one is going to buy a 10 year old electric car if they think the battery (@$15,000) will need to be replaced in 2 years.
This breaks down you you start running the numbers. Look at it this way, people are going to buy an EV that will last another 5 years before needing a battery at some price let’s call it 15k. Take an otherwise identical car and say it needs a 15k new battery right now is it worth 0$? No it’s worth more than that because after replacing the battery you have a car that’s going to last longer than 5 years. It’s also going to have the full range of a new car etc.
Essentially, it’s only a bad idea to replace the battery when a car with a new battery would be worth less than the cost to replace that battery. Of course the random factor could also play a role, but that’s down to design or manufacturing defects not some inherent issue with EV’s. Put another way some ICE cars had huge issues with head gasket replacement etc, but people singled out specific makes and models with issues rather than saying the ICE was simply an unworkable design.
PS: Saying it needs a replacement at some fixed point isn’t generally true. Battery’s rarely just fail, it’s normally a steady degradation such that someone can say range will be at least X miles for N years if I drive 13k miles per year but someone that doesn’t need as long a range or drives fewer miles could go much longer without replacing the battery. Presumably the market will do some filtering so people with lower range requirements will be getting great deals.
A majority of Americans cannot afford an unexpected expense of $1,000, let alone $16,500. The fact that its cheaper than the amount of gas you'd pay over that lifetime is irrelevant considering most Americans are not rich enough to shop comparatively like that. It's expensive to be poor.
> A majority of Americans cannot afford an unexpected expense of $1,000
1. Those statistics typically use a very misleading definition of 'afford'.
2. It would be the exact opposite of unexpected, and even if you procrastinate you just get reduced range and the car keeps working.
And you could probably get a monthly payment plan for an electric car battery.
> The fact that its cheaper than the amount of gas you'd pay over that lifetime is irrelevant considering most Americans are not rich enough to shop comparatively like that. It's expensive to be poor.
You'd pay the new battery money after saving on gas for 12 years. Replacement batteries are not an "expensive to be poor" problem.
>>You'd pay the new battery money after saving on gas for 12 years.
How do you figure? For example lets look at my buying pattern
Some One leases a new Vehicle... 3-4 years later they return it, that is when I come in, I buy a Lease Return almost every time. I keep that for 5-6 years. At which point I sell or trade for another lease return. the car is typically about 9-10 years old at that point. Someone Buys this from me or the dealer then 2 years later is hit with a $16,000-$20,000 bill
People do not normally keep a car for 12 years... So you would not have "saved" for 12 years
>Those statistics typically use a very misleading definition of 'afford'.
It is not really, as it is based on cash savings of a person to incur the expense with out using debt. If we are talking about a $16-20,000 expense on a 12 year old car, it is unlikely anyone will finance that expense has it would exceed the cars resell value. No lender is going to give you a loan to replace the battery. This problem exists today with many hybrids.
> it is based on cash savings of a person to incur the expense with out using debt
When you use debt every day, it doesn't matter very much whether you put an unexpected expense on debt. What matters is how fast you'd pay that off. If it will be gone in a couple months, that's afforded. And that's a lot of people when it comes to sudden hundreds-of-dollars expenses.
> No lender is going to give you a loan to replace the battery.
You can get a loan to buy a car, why not a battery for a car? I expect it to become possible as these things become more common.
> it is unlikely anyone will finance that expense has it would exceed the cars resell value.
Once you put in a new battery pack, won't the value go up a lot?
And basically every new car becomes worth significantly less than the loan value in the first week. This isn't a new problem.
> the car is typically about 9-10 years old at that point. Someone Buys this from me or the dealer then 2 years later is hit with a $16,000-$20,000 bill
If they've only had the car for 2 years then they've barely lost any capacity. Would they even need to replace it so soon?
But if we look at it in simple terms and say the battery is 80% dead, then shouldn't the part of the car's value represented by the battery be reduced by $14k when they buy it? Either way the answer is to consider 80% of a battery as part of the price, just like any other worn out parts a used car might have.
>And basically every new car becomes worth significantly less than the loan value in the first week. This isn't a new problem.
Actually it is, that is why most lenders require you to have Gap Insurance in addition to liability on a new Car Loan
Now i suppose "battery" insurance could also emerge as a new product, but hat really do not change my position any
>If they've only had the car for 2 years then they've barely lost any capacity. Would they even need to replace it so soon?
Are you not following the conversation? Or do you believe every time the car is resold the battery is going to be replaced?
In my hypothetical, a person buys a 10Year old car, then 2 years later they need a battery replacement costing more than the car is worth. They have only had the car for 2 years, but the battery did not magically become new when the car was resold.
> Either way the answer is to consider 80% of a battery as part of the price
The open question is if this can be accurately predicted, sure if you can pull up a report and with 99% percent accuracy show the wear level of the battery that may not be an issue.
My understanding however that this is a "best guess" and is not very accurate and predicting when a battery will actually fail, the health monitor of battery pack far from being as exact as you seem to make it out to be.
> Actually it is, that is why most lenders require you to have Gap Insurance in addition to liability on a new Car Loan
Actually it is... what?
I said it's not a new problem.
And you can use the same solution: get $3k of gap insurance on your new battery.
> but hat really do not change my position any
Why doesn't that change your position? You're saying it's hard to save up that much money, but if you can finance it like a car purchase then you don't need to save up that much money.
> Are you not following the conversation? Or do you believe every time the car is resold the battery is going to be replaced?
I am following.
I was suggesting that batteries don't usually outright fail. If you start with a vehicle at 75% of original range, you don't care as much that it dropped to 70% of original, and you could continue to ride that battery down the slope.
> The open question is if this can be accurately predicted, sure if you can pull up a report and with 99% percent accuracy show the wear level of the battery that may not be an issue.
If batteries are completely failing without much warning then that's probably a job for insurance? But you need enough people to start having that problem before that product will exist. I doubt we'll reach a point where it's a widespread problem and no insurance is available either.
But even if you can't measure the specific battery, if they've used it an average amount for 10 years, and most batteries last 12 at that use, then it should still cause a huge discount.
However, if the batteries need to be replaced every say 12 years spending 16,500$ onto replace a 75kWh battery is less than gas prices over that time span. Further the labor is only 2,300 to replace a battery so falling battery prices could easily make that a pricey but expected repair that’s worth doing once.
Of course that’s assuming a full replacement is needed, the other option is to add capacity to adjust for reduced range. A 75kWh battery that lost 40% capacity only needs an additional 30kWh of batteries to be back to full capacity. An initial design leaving a void and appropriate hookups largely solves the problem of battery degradation.