Awesome. Good luck. Unfortunately I'm no longer in PDX or I'd be there. I always wanted a "hacking dojo" -- a sacred place to think and create with other in flow, together. Shower before entering, robes and laptops only :)

field sobriety test != breathalizer

Deceptively dangerous!

An exposed, spinning shaft seems benign but once it wraps you or your clothing around the shaft it pulls you in and destroys you in a flash.

it seems this could be solved by refusing last minute bets?

Data is released every minute, every five minutes, every hour, and then 6 hour high/low, and then mid-day preliminary reports, so there is no last-minute since any one of those reports could contain data (with various validation/rounding caveats) that could eliminate a market of temperatures, so there isn't really a last minute.

My conclusion was to focus on forecast and attempt to predict the temperature better than forecast vs. market implied probability rather than attempt to respond very quickly to published information. I learned (with my skills) the latter was a losing proposition, but the former isn't impossible (although also possibly beyond my skills it seems).

A lot of people assume insider trading in weather markets on data that's publicly available but they're unaware of.

It's also a massive whoosh that you only consider the insider trader aspect in choosing to play weather markets. No consideration of how you would get an edge in these markets against extremely powerful weather models used by meteorologists who understand the subject and how to apply the data. It seems much different than betting against political pundits.

It's also another whoosh not realizing that some of these stations are actually not that secure when you take a look at them in real life. Less insiders than betting on things that aren't tamper-resistant.

Also, a lot of people complain about insiders profiting from last minute data. One way to limit this would be requiring markets to close in advance of final data, but people love to gamble (read: bet without an edge) on things at the last minute across all prediction market subjects.

I previously managed a firewall via scripts which would automatically revert your update in 20 seconds unless interrupted. So if you botched it and lost access, you just had to sit tight for 20 seconds.

On Reddit perhaps. Not here.

gweights

14% over estimates it because the user isn't clicking with uniform randomness, their clicks are normally distributed about the center of the line.

>In total the thickness went down from 7 to 6 pixels, which is a 14% decrease, making it 14% more likely to miss it.

Pedantic, but chance of miss is actually less than 14% more likely since the user's click location is not uniformly random over the thickness area, it's biased toward the center (normally distributed).

Pedantic, you don't know the distribution, so the chance could be higher

The reduction was specifically to the in-window side of the edge, so it's definitely greater than 14%.

Interesting, I've always approached from the outside in.

I approach from whatever side the mouse happens to be on...

never thought about it before but after playing with it a while i notice i tend to approach from the right, which means moving out if i'm inside on the right side. i think this is because my positioning accuracy seems to be higher moving leftwards than rightwards...

We can safely assume they're more likely to be close to the edge they're trying to grab than some random location on the window

Aim wider: why window and not screen?

Yeah, and not to mention the increase in likelihood click events the user intends for the application will make it through successfully, rather than being stolen by the window manager.

Technically correct is the best kind of correct.

I had similar thought but didn't want to be that guy.

My take is sometimes we get paid to be that guy and precision has its place and value.

We get lost when being right is seen as having value - instead of improving clarity and precision if needed in a specific context.

No furniture in front of the window.