The goalposts will just shift to attack that excess salt instead. It’s like all of the FUD about datacenter water usage while people shove almonds in their mouths.
The top level comments are not smart or well conveyed, they are just the other side of the internet echo chamber. “Good, the rich don’t need money”, etc.
I think Elon owned companies are just a third rail for any kind of intelligent discussion because it turns into Elon fan boys arguing against Elon haters.
I think you pierced the hearts of Elon haters/fan boys and are getting downvoted.
Absolutely agree with your statement. Most top comments are just upvoted from the hivemind. Elon topics are always the worst because nobody even uses critical thinking and will just upvote/downvote based on the theme of Elon = Good or Bad.
So what's your intelligent argument as to why SpaceX's deserves an exception? Please lay out a case that's comessurate to the gravity of such an exception
You missed the plot and are only reinforcing the point. Where in my comment was I saying SpaceX deserves an exception? I am just stating what I observe anytime Elon or one of his companies comes up, it devolves into the extremes. Sorry you fall into that trap.
> That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it.
These are not valid arguments. The companies that get added to the S&P are always owned in some fraction by rich people.
SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in.
> They're not profitable.
Right
> When they prove they're worth the dollars,
Profitable isn’t related to “worth the dollars”. You need to look at income and how much is being reinvested into growth. Amazon famously remained unprofitable due to reinvestment and waiting for them to become profitable before investing was a bad bet.
> Profitable isn’t related to “worth the dollars”. You need to look at income and how much is being reinvested into growth. Amazon famously remained unprofitable due to reinvestment and waiting for them to become profitable before investing was a bad bet.
Amazon met profitability requirements and went into the SP500 at around $2.40 in November 2005. Two years before it was $2.70. Six Years before it was $4.40.
Two years _after_ listing it was $4.50. Six years after it was ~$10.
Waiting for profitability seems like it was a good bet.
Mostly owned by Elon who has 84% of the voting rights. Completely his entity and it can’t be denied that the value of an interesting space business has been massively inflated by tacking a worthless AI business onto it.
> "Amazon famously remained unprofitable due to reinvestment and waiting for them to become profitable before investing was a bad bet."
Amazon wasn't profitable because it reinvested earnings into growth, while SpaceX is funding it's growth by taking on very significant levels of debt (which will take a big chunk of future earnings just to service). These aren't comparable from a risk perspective.
TBF, it was obvious for Uber too, but when that one decided to cash on the results of the growth, there wasn't much they could take. So it's not a certain thing by any means.
But anyway, it's also clear SpaceX isn't doing the same as Amazon.
> Profitable isn’t related to “worth the dollars”. You need to look at income and how much is being reinvested into growth. Amazon famously remained unprofitable due to reinvestment and waiting for them to become profitable before investing was a bad bet.
Sure, but we the only thing we know about the company is the current S1 filing. Need to time to see what all of that looks like. Fast tracking it and essentially forcing other people to buy without scrutinizing is the problem. They may very well be worth the money they claim, but we won't know until after they've proven it. That's what the rules are there for.
So is spacex growing like Amazon was? There is no evidence of growth. And no, Google renting them infra grom then is not growth. If it waa, AllBirds is the next unicorn
SpaceX isn't what it once was, but its Starlink division has grown from 50k users to 12 million in 5 just years.
We don't have good public numbers, but that should be over $13B in revenue and about $2B of income over the last 12 months. Given the growth trend of that 5 years, that approx. $2B of income is likely to double by the end of this year.
Add to that the space launch business around Falcon 9, which had 40+ commercial launches that generated about $4B revenue and something close to $3B of income, and SpaceX was looking strong.
Again, SpaceX isn't what it was 6 months ago, before all the xAI fuckery, but the core business, Starlink and space launch, are doing well by themselves.
There is plenty of evidence of growth. The problem is SpaceX as it is is a conglomerate recently cobbled together, and so estimating what it is and what it's going to do is challenging.
> SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in.
Is it really owned by them if Elon retains most of the voting rights anyway?
Effectively it is solely owned by Elon and other people have an equity stake. This is another huge risk. You have to trust Elon not to get distracted and decide to hard pivot to something else.
Look at Tesla and their hard pivot to humanoid robots. He is all in on robots which about a dozen other companies already make and are largely unprofitable in making. He is betting AI rapidly improves in a way that allows robots to become rapidly more useful and there is zero evidence that is feasible in the next 5 - 10 years.
I am not sure if Texas law on the subject is well defined. The SpaceX materials make it clear their position on minority rights is "you have the right to trust Elon or not buy the stock"
This assumes the military just wants to kill all civilians, which isn’t the case in basically any revolutions. The military doesn’t know which houses to hit, and when >1/2 of the houses are armed in the US it makes disarming all possible defectors very difficult.
I.e. your scenario of an insurgent being packaged up nicely in an identified building is dumb because the insurgent already lost to be revealed that way.
The 15 years of failed insurgency removal in Afghanistan and Iraq are great evidence of this.
Two things amaze me about GPS. First, that there are still four Block IIR and seven Block IIR-M satellites operational; these had 7.5 year design lives and were launched by 2004 and 2009 respectively. Second, that L1C, L5 and L2C are all still pre-operational thanks to the OCX debacle. L1C and L2C really modernize the signal structure to improve accuracy.
No, indexes are meant to track something. The Russel 2000 index has very different criteria for the S&P 500 index. The Dow Jones is yet another one.
The criteria for none of the above is “slow moving”, far from it. Those are all expected to be high growth vehicles for retirement. Safe stuff is bond blended.
Plenty of people at shit in the GFC being invested in “slow moving” S&P 500 companies like Lehman Brothers, WaMu, AIG, GM, etc.
“Was profitable for a while” != “safe” nor is it necessarily good to park money there. You need explosive growth companies that invest rather than profit (like Amazon) being in the S&P 500 are a critical part of its performance.
If retirements only tracked stable mature companies that would be utilities and other stuff that doesn’t actually get you to retirement.
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