"Those people" who? Homebuilders? You're saying you think the cost of homebuilding should be much higher? When I listen to some of you guys it's not hard for me to see why these DCs are so unpopular
I love how the original post says this happens across vastly different societies regardless of all these different variables people are offering as possible explanations. For example, in India (which this article is about), women have a much lower rate of workforce participation than other industrialized countries. I think a lot of people who are replying are men and don't understand how physically tasking and painful pregnancy is. It seems like most women are fine having two if there's a high chance they'll make it to adulthood and they have access to family planning/contraceptives. That makes sense to me. Not sure why this is so confounding to people. Not much more of an explanation needed than that lol
The upper decile of income earners account for more than half of all consumption in the US. Household balance sheets and wealth have never looked stronger, again when you account for all the appreciated stocks and properties owned by the upper quartile. True incomes for the lowest decile rose significantly for the first time since 1970 in 2022 and then sort of stayed flat again. Sure, statistically significantly, not "significantly" as in personally meaningful after figuring in rising consumer costs. There is a narrative where you can see all this as hugely positive but this is also largely a "vibes" based narrative. I don't know why you'd expect most people to care about what the "vibes" are like for the best off in society, that's a bit removed from their daily concerns.
Maybe for some subset of sotware (like CRM panels or something) PMs will do everything. But if you're projecting the way one sort of software (ie user-facing, business use oriented software) is developed and put to use with software writ large, then no I don't think so
Sure, I'm just talking about 90% of software which is basic CRUD, not complex systems or microcontroller programming. In that case it's likely that just a PM could build something with LLMs.
For basic CRUD we’ve had no code solutions that PMs could have been using for decades.
The truth of the matter is that software starts as basic CRUD and then given time and users evolves into its own special snowflake. Every single system given enough time and users will become a “complex system”.
The difference is no code tools are not flexible in the same way LLMs are. As long as PMs can articulate those snowflake requirements to the LLM then it will happily build it.
I'd say the majority of these sorts of tools are actually simple enough to be vibe coded, only some are complex enough to require an actual engineer building it rather than vibe coding. So in most cases it's actually a win for the PM.
Only if you’re talking about tools with very few users that haven’t been around long. In my experience the conflicting requirements and workflows that accrete over time are too complex for people to reason about without more formal methods.
> Only if you’re talking about tools with very few users that haven’t been around long
Sure, most business needs only have a few users. I once built a dashboard over the course of a year only for a grand total of around 10 business executives to actually use it.
For dashboard with 10 users vibe coding is almost definitely viable. But so is no code.
If you are looking at just number it apps things like that might actually be 90% of all commercial applications out there. But if you look at where developers spend there time it just number of devs working on them, it’s nowhere near 90%.
There is some subset of applications that is too complex for no code but not too complex for vibe coding. If that was the niche you were working in you might need to find something else, but I’d be shocked if that employs enough people to have a negative impact on overall software dev job/salary growth.
It sounds like they will still need to hire and train human talent who can understand the code, and evaluate and integrate outputs of AI systems that conform to the specific compliance and data retention requirements of these industries. And also people who can enforce said compliance, and a lot of other things. Sounds like a complex problem without a neat off-the-shelf solution
I think a big part of the reason AI is so divisive and only declining in popularity, is because much of the discourse is shaped by mid to senior career SWEs who fantasize about putting everyone who's not a mid to senior career SWE out of work. People who want to replace everything we like with streamlined slop and want everyone we love struggling to get by. Everyone is inessential except the guy who just sits there telling Claude "can confirm, looks good ship it" who of course isn't deserving of even a paycut
Is AI declining in popularity? There are some surveys where people say they don't like AI, but datacenter construction and utilization tell a very different story.
Right now, we accept false positives as long as you can sort them out. I think it's pretty typical that >99% of fuzzer runs don't result in new coverage. Of course they're far from useless without feedback but it's better to have it if you can. I guess the question is does the llm approach have lower costs for validation and triaging vs just fuzzing alone, unclear to me. Anthropic would like people to believe automation is this scary new unknown
In a large codebase there will still be bugs in how these components interoperate with each other, bugs involving complex chaining of api logic or a temporal element. These are the kind of bugs fuzzers generally struggle at finding. I would be a little freaked out if LLMs started to get good at finding these. Everything I've seen so far seems similar to fuzzer finds.
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